Sunday, July 10, 2016

Initial Findings

Here is the data we used for our research:    

State
Year
Population
Fatal motor vehicle crashes
Motor vehicle crash deaths
Rate
NH
2005
1309940
156
166
12.7
NH
2006
1314895
116
127
9.7
NH
2007
1315828
122
129
9.8
NH
2008
1315809
128
139
10.6
NH
2009
1324575
97
110
8.3
NH
2010
1316470
120
128
9.7
NH
2011
1318194
84
90
6.8
NH
2012
1320718
101
108
8.2
NH
2013
1323459
124
135
10.2
NH
2014
1326813
89
95
7.2
MA
2005
6398743
418
442
6.9
MA
2006
6437193
404
430
6.7
MA
2007
6449755
390
417
6.5
MA
2008
6497967
337
363
5.6
MA
2009
6593587
308
334
5.1
MA
2010
6547629
299
314
4.8
MA
2011
6587536
321
337
5.1
MA
2012
6646144
333
349
5.3
MA
2013
6692824
309
326
4.9
MA
2014
6745408
310
328
4.9

Using this data, we tried to prove that NH is a safer state to drive in the MA. In the t-tests performed, we hoped to see that fatal crashes and crash deaths were higher in MA than in NH.

    Welch Two Sample t-test
data:  car$Fatal.motor.vehicle.crashes[car$state == "NH"] and car$Fatal.motor.vehicle.crashes[car$state == "MA"]
t = -14.751, df = 13.021, p-value = 1.66e-09
alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
95 percent confidence interval:
-262.761 -195.639
sample estimates:
mean of x mean of y
   113.7     342.9

In our initial testing, we compared the fatal motor vehicle crashes from 2005-2014 in the states of NH and MA to determine if the means of the two states were actually significant. The result of the p-value gives a percentage of if the result of the data is generated by random chance alone. With a lower p-value, under 5%, it shows that there is a significant difference between the data. With the means of NH being much lower than the means of MA, with a low p-value, it shows that there are a lot more crashes each year in MA than in NH.
   
Welch Two Sample t-test
data:  car$Motor.vehicle.crash.deaths[car$state == "NH"] and car$Motor.vehicle.crash.deaths[car$state == "MA"]
t = -14.497, df = 12.866, p-value = 2.399e-09
alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
95 percent confidence interval:
-277.2982 -205.3018
sample estimates:
mean of x mean of y
   122.7     364.0

With the second test being the crash deaths in NH and MA, with the t test showing a significant difference in means of 122.7 crash deaths in NH and 364 crash deaths in MA with a p-value of under 1%. This means the results are do not happen by random chance alone, showing there are much more crash deaths in MA than in NH each year.
    Looking at the test results, it shows how MA has higher fatal crashes each year than in NH, meaning that in these cases, MA is worse to drive in than NH.

11 comments:

  1. Would you also be able to look into the rate at which crashes are fatal in each state to compare the probabilities of death when in a car crash in each state, as while you stated there are more crash deaths in MA, could this just be due to the greater amount of total crashes in MA.

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  2. Maybe look into deaths/ per person in each state. The population of Massachusetts is much larger than the population of New Hampshire. Therefore, it is no surprise that thee are more deaths in Massachusetts, there are more people there to crash into. Maybe look into the ratio of deaths. Do more people die in New Hampshire per person of the population or do more people die in Massachusetts per person of the population.

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  3. On the table it says Fatal motor vehicle crashes and motor vehicle crash deaths. I think I know what the difference between the two is, but it is not very clear. Maybe you could explain the table before you explain the t-tests.

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  4. Can you investigate more about the causes of the crashes? Are Mass drivers actually bad drivers, or do they deal with worse conditions than NH drivers do?

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  5. In your first paragraph you say, " there are a lot more crashes each year in MA than in NH." Is that overall crashes or just fatal ones?
    Your final conclusion is "Looking at the test results, it shows how MA has higher fatal crashes each year than in NH, meaning that in these cases, MA is worse to drive in than NH." I am not sure if you can make this conclusion because there are a lot of other variables that are different in MA and NH. For instance, MA has a higher population, so it also likely has a greater number of drivers, which could influence the crash statistics, artificially inflating the crash rate in MA as compared to NH.

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  6. This may be hard to find out but could you find why there are more crashes and crash deaths in MA than in NH. Is it because they were taught differently or is it because there are more people and bigger cities or something like that. What is the most contributing factor?

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  7. This may be hard to find out but could you find why there are more crashes and crash deaths in MA than in NH. Is it because they were taught differently or is it because there are more people and bigger cities or something like that. What is the most contributing factor?

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  8. I like the fact that you have a specific question you are trying to answer with this data. It is an interesting but sad data set. It would be interesting to compare the crashes in cities vs towns then look at the number of cities vs town in NH and MA. This could show why MA is higher than NH

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  9. In terms of your question and trying to figure out which state is safer to drive in, try looking at the total amount of car crashes per year. While Massachusetts may have more deaths than New Hampshire, it's possible that there are more total accidents in New Hampshire. Just something to consider.

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  10. It may also be interesting to look at how the number of traffic accidents and fatalities have changed from 2005-2014 in each state, maybe to make a conclusion about which has been taking more action to prevent accidents.
    Your data is organized well and easy to interpret.

    ReplyDelete